Trevor Story Fantasy Outlook: First-Round Slugger With Speed to Match
With a 60-game season on the horizon, Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story won’t hit mid-30s in home runs for a third consecutive year. However, there’s a lot to appreciate about his fantasy production heading into 2020.
In 2019, the Rockies chose to hit Story in front of Nolan Arenado for about 82 percent of his at-bats, leading to a career-high in runs (111). The downside was a drop of 102 RBI chances from 2018.
His CTBA (.418) was the highest level in his four years in the league, but he continues to have a high strikeout rate (26.5). He also saw a rebound in his walk rate (8.8) compared to 2018 (7.2).
His season started off strong in April and May (.294 with 52 runs, 15 HRs, 42 RBI, and 10 SBs over 228 at-bats). He would miss the final 11 days of June with a right thumb injury, leading to only two home runs and six RBI for the month. However, his swing returned in August and September (.328 with 34 runs, 13 HRs, 27 RBI, and nine SBs over 195 at-bats).
Additionally, Story played much better at home (.328 with 71 runs, 24 HRs, 56 RBI, and 11 SBs over 296 at-bats). His hard-hit rate (45.8) slipped to 44th in the league (34th in 2018 – 46.0). Story had the same HR/FB rate (19.9) in 2018 and 2019 while sliding below his peak years in his AVH (1.884). Over the previous two seasons, he ranked sixth in SIscore (7.75 in 2019 and 10.00 in 2018) for hitters.
His ADP (11) puts him at the tail-end of the first round, which is a fair evaluation. With a floor around 15 home runs and 10 steals, Story can’t help but deliver 85 combined runs and RBI depending on where he hits in the batting order. His only wild card is his batting average, which can’t go higher without fewer strikeouts despite playing in Colorado.
READ MORE: 2020 Colorado Rockies Fantasy Team Preview
